11 December 2024
Published in The Wall Street Journal
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JD Vance is tired of Washington lawmakers who believe they can “remake the entire world in America’s image.” So he said in an October podcast with Joe Rogan, adding that the Iraq war was America’s “biggest world-historical catastrophe.” This came after insights into issues as diverse as climate and energy, immigration and assimilation, and the clash between the right to autonomy and the right to life. It is to Donald Trump’s credit that he chose a running mate capable of handling such topics so adeptly.
Messrs. Trump and Vance are right that it’s past time for American allies to pay their bills. That’s true of Britain and Australia too, the nations least inclined to shirk their obligations. Americans are also right to feel underappreciated, given that the long Pax Americana has mostly been better for the world than for America itself. Still, thanks to America’s blood and treasure, the world has been freer, fairer, safer and richer for more people than at any time in history.
As a weary titan, America’s reluctance to be the main guardian of the universal decencies of mankind is understandable. But the incoming administration should understand that this would be the worst time for the indispensable nation to step aside. An axis of dictatorships—a militarist one in Moscow, an Islamist one in Tehran and a communist one in Beijing—are united by a hatred of the West and a desire to undo history. Without America’s active engagement, the dictators will create a much bleaker and more dangerous world.
Consider the threats and who is prepared to resist them. Vladimir Putin wants to re-create a greater Russia—an impoverished police state across the Eurasian landmass. Xi Jinping wants a restored Middle Kingdom as the world’s dominant power. Ali Khamenei wants a global caliphate, regardless of the violence and bloodshed needed to create it. Standing in their way are Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel. Yet none of these nations can battle alone. Even Israel, a highly motivated warrior state, needs American help to neutralize the Iranian nuclear program. Taiwan’s safety depends on American readiness to help defend it until it’s succeeded in turning itself into a military porcupine. And Ukraine will be ground into defeat without more American materiel, with the Baltic states Mr. Putin’s next target.
The notion that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization somehow provoked Mr. Putin’s war is absurd. Post-Soviet Eastern Europe rushed into collective security because it knew the nature of Mr. Putin’s regime. The fate of Russia’s non-NATO neighbours—such as Georgia—vindicates their judgment. While it might make sense to surrender territory for security, that is true only if real security is on offer. Any attempt to force Ukraine into a cease-fire without a tripwire of, say, British and French troops on the ground, would be a surrender on the scale of Munich. As Churchill is reputed to have told Chamberlain after the 1938 agreement: “You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.”
Mr. Vance served honourably in Iraq, but he misreads that war, and his views have implications for today’s conflicts. It wasn’t wrong to remove the monstrous Saddam regime, which breached several United Nations resolutions. The catastrophe was disbanding the Iraqi army, leaving hundreds of thousands of unemployed men with guns, and sacking the Baathist public service, so that civilian infrastructure largely collapsed.
The folly was failing to restore the monarchy—the only form of government that works in the Arab world—or failing to hand the government to the least bad of Saddam’s generals. The Iraq war was never “all about oil,” as many critics suggested. It was a commendable, if poorly executed, attempt to bring a measure of humanity to a benighted people. I doubt the women of Afghanistan, once more imprisoned behind their veils, regarded the Western efforts as futile effrontery. The fruits of such efforts have been affirmed elsewhere. The people of Germany, Japan and South Korea are the transformed beneficiaries of the first global hegemon ever to use its power to help rather than oppress the weak.
It is a tragedy that so many Americans have perished in recent wars. But the best way to honour their memory is to be smarter about future conflicts, not to surrender the ideals for which they died. Allies can pick up the slack. Australia and others should swiftly move to spend 3% of gross domestic on their armed forces. Britain and Europe should take a stronger lead on Ukraine. The West’s military-industrial base must be rebuilt.
Effectively managing this transition is the great challenge Messrs. Trump and Vance must meet. Much hangs on their success.